Measuring the monetary risk involved when spending in the transfer market.

With Kieran Trippier recently leaving for Atletico Madrid and Tottenham looking to refresh an aging squad, the next in the firing line seems to be Danny Rose. After 12 years in North London and almost 200 appearances racked up, the left back has been left out of the Spurs squad for their pre-season tour of Asia, which has only intensified the rumours.  

 

After recently breaking their transfer record to sign Tanguy Ndombele and moving to their new stadium, the North London club are looking to recoup funds. Whilst Rose is likely to command a relatively modest transfer fee the main aspect that’s driving the transfer is Pochettino trying to reduce the average age of his squad and bring a bright future to a team that, again, came so close to securing a trophy in last season’s Champions League final.  

 

If the latest whispers are to be believed, then Tottenham are looking to replace the 29 year old with teenager Ryan Sessegnon, but let’s take a look at the teams that are in the running to snap up Danny Rose.  

 

The current favourites for his signature are Manchester United. Although Luke Shaw was impressive last season and won the club’s Players’ Player of the Year award, United could still use some quality and depth if they are to compete on multiple fronts. Given a lot of the new signings for the Red Devils have been younger players, Rose could bring some much needed experience and maybe even look to mentor Shaw, who is still pushing to get back in the England team, and their new signing Aaron Wan-Bissaka to push them to improve even further. 

 

Another potential destination could be Juventus. The Italian champions could represent the left back’s greatest chance to win a trophy after coming so close on numerous occasions with Tottenham. Whilst Alex Sandro has currently nailed down the starting position, and the club have recently signed Luca Pellegrini from Roma, Rose could represent another experienced option for The Old Lady as Pellegrini continues to develop into the role and make it his own in the future.  

 

A further option that is being discussed is PSG. This may be good from Rose’s viewpoint as this would also represent a great opportunity for him to fill his personal trophy cabinet given their dominance of French football in recent seasons. However, the main sticking point is that the club already has two quality options at left back in Layvin Kurzawa and Juan Bernat, both of whom are younger than Rose and one would need to be sold or moved out of position to accommodate the English international. 

 

One interesting, but unlikely, destination would be Leeds United. With it being his boyhood club and the Yorkshire club looking to take the next step and break into the Premier League it could prove to be a fairytale reunion for both parties. Really, the only thing that has given this move any credibility is that in previous interviews he has admitted that he misses his friends and family who are mainly based around the area. However, one of the main barriers to this occurring would be his wages, whilst his deal at Spurs isn’t to be sniffed at, the player may be looking for either one, or even more than one, big payday or to expand his horizons beyond his native country, neither of which can be offered by the Yorkshire club. Also, the player may be reluctant to make the step down to the Championship, after demonstrating last season that he still has much to offer at Premier League level. 

 

We would currently value Danny Rose at £14.46m. Despite his wealth of experience in the Premier League and his England caps, any club that would take the plunge would be unlikely to see any resale value if they were to move him on. Even with the inflated transfer fees in the current market, we would consider any deal under £20m to represent good value for a player who still has a lot to offer a club on and off the pitch. Therefore, Rose could prove to be a great value buy for any current mid-table Premier League club, or provide squad depth at an even higher level. 

 


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