Measuring the monetary risk involved when spending in the transfer market.

One of the transfer sagas of the summer rumbles on as Juventus look to try and offload Paulo Dybala, a player who was seen, until recently, as one of the best players at the club. The most crucial change since then has been the signing of Cristiano Ronaldo. After dominating Italian football, Juventus have increasingly been turning their attention to trying to win the Champions League for the first time since 1995/96. Ronaldo was seen as a clear statement of intent as the Portuguese international has had repeated success in the competition, winning it 5 times with two different clubs.

This has meant that Dybala has had to settle for a supporting role instead of being the star man in Turin. In 30 Serie A matches last season, Dybala only managed 5 goals and 4 assists compared to the previous season (before Ronaldo joined) where he racked up 22 goals and 5 assists in 33 matches. Given the players that the Bianconeri have added this summer, the Club are in a position where they must either leave talented players out of their 25-man Champions League squad or push them out of the Club to generate a quick financial return. Due to Dybala already considering his options after playing a bit-part role after the arrival of Ronaldo, he has become one of the prime candidates for the Turin giants to recuperate a proportion of the fee paid for Matthijs De Ligt earlier this summer.

Currently, one of the most likely options looks to be PSG as the French club appear keen on bringing another high-calibre player to the club. The latest reports seem to indicate that want-away star Neymar is edging closer to a deal with Barcelona which would include a sizeable transfer fee as well as at least one midfielder going to the French capital. This would leave a position open in the Parisien’s first-choice front line and with Dybala available, he could be one of the players that they turn to if Neymar leaves the Club.

Another rumoured option for Dybala is Inter Milan, with the Argentine rumoured to be involved in a swap deal for Mauro Icardi (a player we have previously wrote about here: http://thetransferlist.co.uk/index.php/home/updates/mauro-icardi-saga-summer). With Mandzukic just turning 33 and the returning Higuain due to turn 32 this season, Juventus could do with refreshing their forward line and the 26-year-old Icardi appears to be the Club’s prime target. However, with Dybala reluctant to take a perceived step down and Juventus reluctant to potentially strengthen one of their main rivals for the Serie A title, this transfer is one appears unlikely this window, although this is rumour is likely to continue until either player leaves their respective Clubs. For this reason, as potential destinations for both players diminish, this deal appears more and more likely. Therefore, this could be a move to be concluded in January if neither player manages to push through a move.

Similarly, both Manchester United and Tottenham were rumoured to be potential destinations for Dybala before the English transfer window closed. With both deals reportedly collapsing due to complications around the player’s image rights, more time to prepare for the deal could also mean that both Clubs revive their interest for Dybala in January if he remains with the Bianconeri.

We would currently value Dybala at £25.79 million, primarily because he has a fairly low number of international caps for his ability and age. However, his pedigree at club level cannot be overlooked as he has significant experience in the Champions League and Serie A, so would prove a valuable addition to most clubs in Europe. Considering this alongside the player’s potential marketability, a fee in the region of £60 million would likely prove to be good value in today’s market.


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