Measuring the monetary risk involved when spending in the transfer market.

After almost six years in Madrid, rumours suggest that Gareth Bale is still yet to settle in the Spanish capital and is yet to learn the language. With the recent emergence of Vinicius Junior and Lucas Vazquez revitalised under the tutelage of Santiago Solari, Bale is no longer guaranteed a starting position for Los Blancos. So, should Premier League club's seriously consider making a move for the Welsh talisman?

At 29 years old, time is no longer on Bale's side. With wingers generally peaking during their mid-late twenties, Bale is likely to be now on the decline. The Welshman  has also missed 74 games due to injury across his four and a half seasons in Madrid. By comparison, Cristiano Ronaldo was only unavailable for 36 games due to injury over his eight seasons for Los Blancos.

Both of these factors make any transfer for Gareth Bale a huge risk and lead to our valuation of just £12.77m for the Welshman.

However, this valuation fails to consider Bale's marketability. Gareth Bale remains one of the most recognisable names in world football and would be regarded as a huge signing for any Premier League club, attracting global interest and attention. 

Whilst Bale may also be on the decline, his ability to put in his greatest performances on the biggest stage should also be considered. He has featured in each of the last three Champions League final victories for Madrid, most recently picking up the Man of the Match award in the 2018 final against Liverpool. Whilst his fitness and injury history may be questioned, when the pressure is on, Bale delivers. Therefore, he remains an extremely valuable commodity. 

With Madrid continually linked with Eden Hazard, Christian Eriksen and Neymar, Bale appears the most likely to be moved on in order to make space for Madrid's next galatico. Should the Welshman become available, a fee of around £45m could prove to be a very shrewd investment for any of the top six Premier League sides.

 


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