Measuring the monetary risk involved when spending in the transfer market.

Another player who has been reportedly identified by Zidane as part of Real Madrid’s upcoming rebuild is Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen. The former Ajax academy graduate has been integral to Pochettino’s side in their run to the Champions League semi-finals and in their pursuit to secure Champions League football for the fourth consecutive season. The path from Tottenham to Real Madrid has been well trodden, with both Luka Modric and Gareth Bale making the move in recent years. With the Danish playmaker expected to follow in their footsteps this Summer, how much is he really worth?

 

Daniel Levy is known to be a shrewd negotiator in the transfer market, and is reportedly holding out for a fee of £140m, despite the Dane having just one year left on his contract. Conversely, Real Madrid are reportedly only willing to pay a fee in the region of £85m. Our calculations reveal a market value of almost exactly half of this figure; £42.27m. As always, this doesn’t account for a player’s form, ability or marketability. This value may be perceived to be relatively low to reflect the player’s likely resale value. At 27 years of age, Eriksen is still likely to have 4-5 years before he starts to decline significantly. However, at this point, he is unlikely to command a large transfer fee.

 

With Real Madrid in need of midfield reinforcements to replace the ageing Luka Modric and lethargic Toni Kroos, there are few players available in the current market that would prove more capable replacements than Christian Eriksen. The Dane is only one goal or assist away from having 20 direct goal contributions in the Premier League for the fourth consecutive season. However, Tottenham are well aware of Eriksen’s importance to the side and now the Club have finally returned to White Hart Lane at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they may be willing to offer the player a significant wage increase in order to keep him at the Club.

 

Daniel Levy, as usual, appears to be in a position of strength in this negotiation and so Real Madrid will likely have to match Tottenham’s £140m asking price to acquire the Dane this Summer. Following our valuations, this would likely be a huge overspend from the Spanish side, even if he was to play a part in revitalising the Club, picking up La Liga and Champions League titles during his stay. Whilst Madrid’s £85m valuation seems accurate to us, it seems that Tottenham would rather hold onto the player at this price.

 

Alternatively, Los Blancos could look to tempt Eriksen to join the Club on a free transfer after his contract expires. This would obviously be the most efficient way of acquiring the player although this could potentially delay Real Madrid’s transitional period for a further year and leave the risk that Eriksen could instead sign a new contract at Tottenham.

 

For Real Madrid, we would recommend sticking to their own valuation for the player. If they are unable to acquire the Dane for this price, they should wait until January in the hope that his asking price lowers or try to tempt Eriksen away from signing a new deal at Tottenham, in order for him to make the move on a free transfer in the Summer of 2020. 

 


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